
Choose a model and estimator for your assessment
Source:vignettes/mfrmr-model-choice.Rmd
mfrmr-model-choice.RmdA useful model answers the assessment question with assumptions that the rating design and data can support. There is no single model that is best for every dataset, and the most flexible model is not automatically the safest. This guide explains the choices before you look up individual function arguments. For a runnable first analysis, follow the workflow tutorial.
Two choices matter. The model describes how ability, severity, category use and dependence generate ratings. The estimator determines how its parameters are estimated and how Person ability is handled. RSM, PCM and GPCM are model choices; JML, corrected JML, MML and CML are estimation choices. Changing the estimator does not repair an inappropriate response model.
Start with the decision you need to make
Suppose judges rate performances using an ordered rubric. Decide whether the target is the severity of these judges, ability scores for performers, or the dependability of a future assessment. Those questions can require different analyses even when the input ratings are identical.
| Your question | Route to consider | What makes it appropriate |
|---|---|---|
| How much stricter are these particular judges, after allowing for the tasks? | Fixed-facet RSM or PCM; consider CML if structural comparisons are the main target. | Estimates named effects or identified differences. CML avoids specifying an ability distribution, but supplies no Person scores. |
| What are the performers’ abilities, and how do they vary in the target population? | A suitable response model estimated by MML; explicitly choose fixed or estimated population parameters. | MML uses a population distribution for calibration and posterior scoring. Its distributional assumptions are part of the analysis. |
| Do different criteria or judges use the rubric categories differently? | PCM with the relevant step_facet. |
Allows separate category-step patterns for that facet. A common pattern may be preferable when substantively credible and separate patterns are poorly informed. |
| Does the relationship between ability and ratings differ across criteria or judges? | One-family GPCM with an explicit slope_facet; use MML
for structural inference. |
Estimates relative discriminations. A high slope is not, by itself, evidence of a better or fairer judge. |
| Are several ratings of the same performance related beyond the modeled ability and fixed effects? | Person-specific testlet RSM, when its block structure matches the design. | Models dependence within a Person’s block. Free GPCM slopes alone do not model that dependence. |
| Are the judges sampled from a population to which I want to generalize? | Shared random-rater RSM, when that sampling and distribution model is credible. | Estimates rater-population variation and shrunken effects for observed raters. These differ from fixed-judge severities. |
| Would more judges or tasks improve the dependability of our reported score? | G-study and D-study. | Studies variation in observed scores and specified future plans; no MFRM fit is required. |
| Did judges actually assign the same scores to the same performances? | Rating agreement and score comparisons. | Agreement concerns observed scores. Small estimated severity differences do not establish agreement. |
These are starting choices, not automatic rules based on the number
of rows. Use describe_mfrm_data() to inspect score
categories and rating assignments. For example, if each judge works on a
different task and no observations separate the two effects, a richer
model cannot invent the missing comparison. More Persons can improve
precision in supported directions while leaving that confounding intact.
Missing or unassigned ratings are not zero scores.
The package does not impose one minimum Person count for every task.
Full RSM/PCM JML, CML and fixed-population MML can accept a single
Person if their checks pass; other calibration routes retain an
at-least-two-Person support limit. One-Person JML/MML requires
lpSolve for a pre-fit recession check. Independent repeated
ratings can sometimes identify a comparison within that Person, but
copying the same rating does not create information. The results retain
a single-Person caution: a finite point or model-information interval
does not establish coverage or empirical between-Person variation.
Person- cluster sandwich uncertainty is unavailable. Scoring a new
Person against an existing calibration is a different task; see the portable calibration
tutorial.
Choose what the response model needs to explain
Here, a facet is a modeled role such as Rater, Criterion or Task; its levels are the individual raters, criteria or tasks. The step owner is the facet whose levels receive separate transitions between adjacent categories. The slope owner supplies separate discriminations: how strongly the rating probabilities change with ability. Several facets still describe one latent ability dimension in these models.
Severity and category use are different effects. A judge can be stricter overall while using the same relative step pattern as other judges; RSM already allows that severity difference. PCM is relevant when the step pattern itself differs after allowing for the modeled locations.
| Model in mfrmr | What it allows | When the extra structure helps, and what it costs |
|---|---|---|
| RSM: rating-scale model | Additive fixed facet locations and a shared category-step pattern; discrimination fixed at one. | A useful starting model when the same rubric transitions and discrimination are credible. It pools information about steps, but can miss systematic differences in category use. |
| PCM: partial-credit model | Separate step patterns for one selected facet; discrimination remains one. | Useful when, for example, criteria have genuinely different transitions. Each separate pattern needs information; sparse category use can make it unstable or unestimable. |
| One-family GPCM: generalized partial-credit model | PCM structure plus positive relative slopes for one selected facet. | Useful for a substantive discrimination question. Free slopes add uncertainty and affect score interpretation; ordinary total-score CML is unavailable. MML permits distinct step and slope owners; JML requires the same owner. |
| Two-family GPCM | Two ordered slope families for exactly two non-Person facets, under the documented constraints. | A provisional MML route for questions requiring both families. It needs a design that separates them and has a narrower set of supported outputs; it is still unidimensional. |
| Person-specific testlet RSM | An additional normally distributed effect shared by ratings in a block within a Person. | Useful for the supported nonoverlapping block design. It adds a variance component and does not represent a rater effect shared across different Persons. |
| Shared random-rater RSM | A normally distributed rater effect shared across Persons. | Useful for a credible sampled-rater population. It changes the target and introduces shrinkage and a variance component. Current estimation uses a Laplace approximation for the shared rater effects. |
The extensions are not interchangeable. PCM step variation, GPCM discrimination variation, testlet dependence and random-rater variation answer different questions. The current testlet and random-rater functions fit their specified RSM extensions; they are not switches that can be added to every PCM or GPCM. See the GPCM scope guide, testlet tutorial and random-rater tutorial for the exact fitted models.
Choose how Person ability enters estimation
The main distinction is whether ability is estimated separately for each Person, integrated over a population distribution, or removed by conditioning. None of these choices guarantees valid uncertainty in an arbitrary small or sparse sample.
| Estimator | Handling of Person ability | Useful for | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| JML: joint maximum likelihood | Estimates Person and structural parameters jointly. | Joint point estimates and carefully matched FACETS comparisons. | With a fixed number of ratings per Person, adding Persons also adds nuisance parameters. Structural bias need not disappear. Approximate location SEs do not supply generally valid structural confidence intervals. |
| Corrected JML | Adjusts profile estimating equations at a specified finite correction order. | The experimental shared-owner one-family GPCM point-estimation workflow. | This is not a general RSM/PCM correction. Remaining bias can persist
with fixed exposure; RootSE describes local root
uncertainty, not a qualified interval for the true structural
parameter. |
| MML: marginal maximum likelihood | Integrates over a declared ability-population model. | Population parameters, latent regression, posterior Person scoring and supported structural inference, including GPCM. | Misspecification of the population or response model can affect results. Numerical integration, identification, information and boundary checks also matter. |
| CML: conditional maximum likelihood | Conditions on each Person’s observed total for the modeled response set, eliminating ability. | RSM/PCM structural comparisons when an ability-distribution assumption is undesirable, especially with few ratings per Person. | Does not estimate Person abilities or a population SD. All-minimum or all-maximum totals contribute no conditional structural information; sparse assignments can leave comparisons unidentified. |
For example, a Person with only maximum scores can have an infinite unanchored JML ability estimate. MML posterior scoring can give a finite score because it also uses the assumed population distribution; the CML calibration receives no conditional information from that extreme total. These different outputs do not show that one program found extra observations. They reflect different treatments of ability and different questions.
CML’s distribution-free advantage concerns the ability distribution; it does not remove the response-model assumptions. Under a correct conditional model, independent Persons, an identified fixed-dimensional structural target and growing informative data, regular consistency and asymptotic normality can hold with the number of ratings per Person fixed. Conditional-information Wald intervals rely on those conditions and an interior finite solution. They are not exact small-sample intervals. Ability-dependent assignments or response-dependent stopping need separate justification; conditioning is not a blanket correction for an informative observation process. See Andersen (1970) and Mair and Hatzinger (2007).
Why does this CML route stop at RSM/PCM? With unequal GPCM slopes, two response patterns with the same total can still have different relationships to ability. For example, scoring 1 then 0 and scoring 0 then 1 both total one, but the probability of each pattern depends on which rating has the steeper slope. Conditioning on that total therefore does not remove ability. This is a limit of ordinary total-score conditioning, not a claim that no sufficient statistic can exist in any GPCM submodel; the GPCM guide gives the calculation.
If the ability distribution may be skewed, CML is an attractive option for RSM/PCM structural comparisons when their conditional response assumptions are credible. If the question requires GPCM slopes or population ability parameters, switching to CML is not an available substitute. The MML distributional assumptions and sensitivity of the intended conclusion then need attention. More optimizer iterations or quadrature points improve numerical approximation; they do not remove distributional misspecification or fixed-exposure JML bias.
Which combinations are currently implemented?
This table concerns estimation routes, not a promise that every diagnostic, interval or export is available for each route. A dash means the combination is not implemented, rather than that an attempted fit failed.
| Model | JML | Corrected JML | MML | CML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSM | Yes | – | Yes | Structural parameters |
| PCM | Yes | – | Yes | Structural parameters |
| One-family GPCM | Shared step/slope owner | Experimental; shared owner | Yes | – |
| Two-family GPCM | – | – | Provisional | – |
| Testlet RSM | – | – | Dedicated route | – |
| Random-rater RSM | – | – | Dedicated approximate route | – |
Use fit_mfrm() for the first four rows,
fit_mfrm_testlet() for testlets and
fit_mfrm_random_rater() for shared random raters. For
native CML, keep the declared rubric with
category_policy = "preserve", use unit response weights and
specify step_facet explicitly for PCM. Use
gpcm_capability_matrix() and
mfrmr_interval_guide() to check the required output before
committing to a workflow. Corrected JML is requested explicitly with
jml_correction_order; it is not selected automatically by
increasing iterations. Its adjustment is related to Dhaene and Weidner
(2023); the package’s plug-in implementation and limits are
explained in the GPCM guide.
Check the population scale before comparing results
The defaults are not identical across model families. Ordinary
RSM/PCM MML with population_formula = NULL fixes the
ability distribution to normal with mean zero and SD one.
population_formula = ~ 1 instead estimates its mean and SD
under the package’s identification constraints. Default one-family GPCM
MML estimates the normal population mean and SD, with geometric-mean-one
relative slopes. Its fixed-standard-normal option imposes an additional
restriction; it is not merely a harmless relabeling of the same fit. The
current two-family route fixes the standard-normal ability distribution.
The testlet and shared random-rater functions instead fix the normal
ability mean at zero and estimate its SD by default.
For a contrast standardized by the same fit’s estimated
population SD, the target is the fitted difference divided by
that SD. Its delta-method SE must include uncertainty in both quantities
and their covariance. CML supplies no such SD, and the empirical SD of
JML Person estimates is not a replacement. With latent regression, the
estimated SD is the conditional residual ability SD, not automatically
the total marginal population SD. See
mfrm_facet_intervals() for supported standardized
contrasts.
Why not start with the most complex model?
A larger model can contain a simpler model, but estimating the larger model does not impose the simpler model’s restrictions. At the response-model level, PCM reduces to RSM when its centered step patterns are equal, and one-family GPCM reduces to PCM when every relative slope is one, with the other structures and scale matched. These relationships motivate comparisons; they do not establish that the larger model always yields better estimates. The original PCM and GPCM papers describe these response-model families.
Consider three criteria that truly use the same category transitions. In a finite sample, separate PCM estimates will generally differ just through sampling variation. RSM pools the information through the common-step restriction. PCM can detect real differences when they exist, but spends information estimating differences even when they do not. This is a conceptual example, not an empirical finding about the user’s rubric.
There are five practical consequences:
- Additional effects need additional information. Sparse categories, few observations per level or weak crossing can make extra slopes or steps imprecise, strongly correlated or unidentified. Convergence alone does not show that the data distinguish them. Conversely, pooling genuinely different effects can introduce bias; fewer parameters are not always better. For example, with the same two binary items answered once by each Person, the default GPCM has more free parameters than the response distribution can identify. Increasing the number of Persons alone cannot resolve this problem; see the GPCM inference explanation.
- Flexibility in one respect leaves other assumptions unchanged. GPCM slopes do not automatically handle local dependence, multiple ability dimensions, informative missingness or a misspecified ability distribution. A known same-performance dependency may justify a testlet model from the outset, even if a simpler independent-response model converges.
- The target and available methods may change. Random-rater modes and population variance answer different questions from fixed-rater severities. Free GPCM discrimination also removes the ordinary total-score CML route. These changes concern interpretation and inference, not just fit quality.
- Better fit to the observed data is not guaranteed better inference. For genuinely nested models on the same likelihood and data, the larger model’s maximized likelihood cannot be smaller if optimization reaches the global maximum. That algebraic fact does not guarantee better prediction, less estimation error or valid confidence-interval coverage. The nesting statement concerns complete models, including population assumptions, not their names.
- Boundary and selection uncertainty need attention. A random-effect variance of zero is a boundary, so an ordinary chi-squared likelihood-ratio reference or symmetric normal variance interval is not automatically valid (Self and Liang, 1987). Intervals from a selected model also generally condition on that model; they do not automatically include uncertainty from trying many alternatives.
Thus, there is no requirement to begin with RSM and add complexity one step at a time. Begin with the structure justified by the assessment question and design. Estimate additional effects when they answer a needed question and the design can distinguish them; use a simpler structure when its restrictions are defensible. If known dependencies cannot be supported by the available data or package, acknowledge that limitation instead of assuming independence just to obtain output.
Compare conclusions, not just fit statistics
A practical comparison asks whether a particular modeling choice changes the decision: for example, whether judge severity differences remain substantively similar when criteria have separate category steps. State that question before adding candidate models. A sensitivity analysis should preserve the intended target and explain any changed assumptions.
For information criteria or likelihood-ratio comparisons, match
retained ratings, category coding, weights, anchors, identification and
population assumptions. compare_mfrm() checks supported MML
comparisons; an explicit nested = TRUE requests a supported
nested comparison. For RSM versus PCM, the PCM must retain every
interaction in the RSM; additional category-step parameters alone do not
establish nesting. Information criteria can still compare eligible
nonnested models. Default RSM and default GPCM fits do not automatically
form a matched pair because their population defaults differ. Do not
rank CML, JML and MML by putting their different likelihoods into one
AIC table. A converged fit, a small SE or the lowest AIC alone does not
settle the assessment question. If evaluating prediction, choose
validation units that match the intended use, such as new Persons rather
than randomly held-out rows from the same Persons, while preserving
required linking.
Read the estimate, its uncertainty and its availability reason separately. An unavailable interval can accompany a useful finite point; an unidentified contrast is a different problem. An extreme Person score, an empty category and a near-zero variance component also call for different responses. Do not replace missing intervals by zero-width intervals or numerical optimizer limits. With limited information, consider substantively justified pooling, additional linking observations or a narrower claim. Changing the rubric or target solely to force a successful fit changes the question.
Continue to the analysis and reporting
For ordinary RSM/PCM MML, start with the workflow tutorial. For CML structural
comparisons and model-specific uncertainty, use facet intervals. For GPCM or
either dependence extension, follow the dedicated guides linked above.
In an R installation without vignettes,
help("mfrmr_workflow_methods") gives the workflow and
help("mfrmr_methods_reference") links questions to methods
and references.
When reporting, explain what you wanted to compare, why the chosen response and population model suit the design, and how the result answers that question. Name the estimator, scale constraints, retained rating/category definitions, uncertainty method and relevant limitations. Report a sensitivity result as evidence about that specific choice, not as proof that every assumption is correct. A readable decision rationale is more useful than a list of all the models that happened to converge.